High-Speed Internet Service Update:
FCC Finds 4.3 Million High-Speed Internet Users in the US

Not quite as exciting as Steve Martin's portrayal of Navin R. Johnson in The Jerk when the new phone book arrives, but it's new numbers all the same.

by Patricia Fusco ISP-Planet Managing Editor [November 2, 2000]

This week the Federal Communications Commission released its latest census of high-speed Internet services in the US.

The biannual report is based on information filed by qualifying carriers only. That is — any facilities-based firm that provides 250 or more high-speed service lines in a given state, broken down by type of technology … for each state in which they exceeded the reporting threshold.

Not exactly apples-to-apples
The FCC's latest report is another self-affirmation of its mission to vigilantly monitor the rollout of broadband access in the US and encourage competition in this market.

Unfortunately, the FCC's survey methods perpetuate three major fallacies — one that imposes a metropolitan bias on the results, a second that ignores the physical location of the final destination of the high-speed line, and a third that compares coax users to copper customers in an apples-to-apples comparison (even though there are more actual users at the end of certain types of line).

But this is nothing new, The Politics of Numbers are such that the primary benefit any FCC report provides directly corresponds to the level of amusement it affords industry analysts. So let's have some fun with the latest FCC high-speed numbers.

Making it oranges-to-oranges
According to the FCC report, high-speed lines connecting homes and small businesses to the Internet increased by 57 percent during the first half of 2000, to a total of 4.3 million lines in service — up from 2.8 million at the end of 1999.

Furthermore, high-speed asymmetric digital subscriber lines (ADSL) in service increased by 157 percent, to almost one million lines — compared to about 370,000 lines at the end of 1999. Nothing but the whole fruit
Note that these are numbers for the first half of the year only. As an example, why don't we add your ISP's current level of DSL services into the mix? To do so, we have to take the FCC's second quarter numbers and adjust them for third quarter growth. If we accept that 57 percent represents average growth, then there are 7.8 million high-speed lines in use as of Oct. 31.

Of course, we must do the same for the FCC's ADSL statistics, so we can estimate that there are 1.57 million revved-up copper lines active in the US as of Oct. 31.

The List, a global directory of ISPs, reports that there are 9,400, Internet access providers in the world, of which about 8,000 ISPs are located in the US.

A yet unpublished ISP-Planet survey found that 71 percent of participating ISPs currently offer broadband services. If you do the math, you'll conclude there are 5,600 US-based ISPs that provide what the FCC defines as being "high-speed services."

We estimate that independent ISPs account for more than 280,000 high-speed lines operating in the US. These are ignored by the FCC and should be added to the FCC tally — so there are nearly 8.1 million high-speed lines abuzz with voice and data traffic right now.

The ISP-Planet survey also indicated that of those ISPs offering high-speed services, 72 percent provide DSL access. Extrapolated, that means 4,032 independent ISPs are offering DSL services in the US.

We estimate that 201,600 copper lines should be added to the FCC's tabulation to account for high-speed lines delivered to customers by independent ISPs.

The final score? There are currently more than 1.7 million digital subscriber lines in use in the US.

Yes, we have no bananas
As for high-speed cable services, the FCC reported that coaxial cable systems connect about 2.2 million US users, amounting to a 59 percent increase from the end of 1999 when the Commission reported 1.4 million coax lines in use.

Once again, in order to bring the numbers up-to-date, we have to transform that number into third quarter results. There are an estimated 3.5 million high-speed cable lines providing Internet access to US homes as of Oct. 31.

The FCC data is consistent with our tracking, indicating that Excite@Home and Road Runner serve 3.3 million US customers as of Oct. 31. The remaining 200,000 customers belong to other cable companies like Cablevision and RCN.

Forbidden fruit
In conclusion, the FCC indicates there are 4.3 million lines supporting high-speed services in the US — 1 million DSL, 2.2 million cable and 1.1 million "other" including fixed wireless and terrestrial systems.

We estimate that the current figure is more like 7.8 million high-speed users — 1.7 million DSL, 3.5 million cable and 2.6 million "other" systems. But our "other" category includes your ISP's leased line services, another high-speed service omission from the FCC's report.

High-speed Internet service numbers are not about who owns the last mile of the line. The numbers should accurately detail who delivers lines to homes and businesses throughout the nation.

In that context, the government cannot ignore your ISP's high-speed services when drafting polcies to bridge the digital divide. Small business ISPs are just as relevant as the big companies: SBC, Covad, Verizon, Qwest, and others.

Unlike big government reports that only recognize big business services, we think your ISP counts. Odds are good that your customers think so, too.

—End

Related articles:
	[Sept. 29, 2000]	FCC Investigates High-Speed Internet Service
	[Aug. 10, 2000]	The Politics of Numbers