The broadband fixed wireless industry has supposedly been in the doldrums for a year or more. Vendors are bleeding red ink and singing the blues. More than a few have dropped out.

by Gerry Blackwell [March 26, 2002]

Apparently whatever ails the industry overall isn't having much effect on the ISP market segment. Or not according to surprising new research from ISP-Market LLC, a Walnut Creek, California-based consulting and research firm.

For ISP-Market's most recent study, Broadband Wireless Access 2002: Service Provider Profiles, Market Drivers and Spending Projections, the firm surveyed 120 ISPs already offering broadband fixed wireless services. The report projects ISPs will spend $345 million on fixed wireless network equipment in 2002.

Over 50 percent of the respondents indicated they planned to deploy from ten to 30 additional access points in the first half of the year alone. Given that most survey participants are Tier 2 and 3 players and many only have a few access points now, this is significant.

And it's not just existing wireless ISPs who are spending money on wireless. For another study last October, ISP to xSP: Putting the Service in Service Provider, the firm interviewed 120 randomly selected U.S. ISPs about their plans for offering additional services. Thirty percent said they would launch broadband fixed wireless access initiatives in 2002.

Again, this is a significant increase. ISP-Market estimates that less than 10 percent of ISPs—600 to 700 all told—had deployed fixed wireless services by the end of 2001. Managing partner Tom McCafferty admits the firm's estimates tend to be conservative. Others have suggested there may be as many as 1,200 wireless ISPs in the U.S., he says.

Near-term key findings
The firm also quite deliberately did not ask participants about plans for 2003 or beyond. "We don't want to be the kind of company that says, 'This market will be worth $8 billion by 2005,'" McCafferty says. "We've got access to same group. We'll work with them again later this year."

So why, despite a general economic slowdown and supposedly reduced confidence in the fixed wireless industry should 2002 be the year of the wireless ISP? McCafferty says it's a combination of factors.

One is that with the disappearance of many competitive local exchange carriers (CLECs), it became more difficult for ISPs to find other ways to provide broadband access.

"There was a major decline in Tier 2 and 3 ISPs' access to DSL," McCafferty says. That was enough to make many of them start looking at fixed wireless. "And then the fact that they don't have to deal with the telcos [if they go with a fixed wireless solution] makes it even sweeter."

The other big factor was equipment availability. "Price-wise it's there now, the stability is there. There are just not as many question marks on the equipment as there were," McCafferty says.

"Now they can deliver some kind of broadband solution and the ROI is half the time it would be if they went with DSL from the telco. And for the first time they're not having to share revenues with anyone."

Another factor may simply be that the new entrants saw others having success with fixed wireless and jumped on the bandwagon. McCafferty did not actually ask participants in the later wireless ISP survey if they were making money on fixed wireless services, but they must be, he reasons.

"Looking at what some of their expansion plans are, I would certainly hope that they're making money," McCafferty says. "Of course that may not be a good assumption given the track record of this industry."

He's only half joking. Most analysts believe companies like Winstar and Teligent failed largely because of their now discredited build-it-and-they-will-come network expansion strategies.

Buildup to buildouts
Even more impressive than the aggressive expansion plans revealed by many wireless ISPs is the way they intend to fund their buildouts, McCafferty says. Almost 40 percent said they would do it with cash reserves or from revenues.

"We found that fascinating," he says. "It says a lot about the ISP space today—just the fact, first of all, that so many have the cash to do this."

In the early days of the ISP industry, he notes, most companies were so cash poor they relied heavily on vendor financing. But virtually none of the wireless ISP respondents to the ISP-Market survey said they would fund their fixed wireless expansions with vendor assistance. The rest planned to borrow from the bank or seek equity financing. Broadband Wireless Access 2002 should be of interest both to ISPs thinking of entering the wireless ISP arena and network equipment vendors, McCafferty says.

Major sections of the report look at: sources of venture and investment capital, key factors and challenges for wireless ISPs, current service plans, existing customer bases, projected one year growth and competing broadband services and price points.

Who are wireless ISPs serving with their broadband fixed wireless offerings?

No big surprises there. The report says 58 percent are primarily targeting small to medium-size businesses (SMBs), 17 percent are going after large enterprises, 12 percent are targeting the small office, home office (SOHO) market—and the rest (13 percent) are going after residential customers.

Most are offering more bandwidth than digital subscriber line (DSL) and cable competitors, but also charging slightly more for it. The most popular service offering is 512 Kbps, with 1.5 Mbps the next most common. Some wireless ISPs still provide 256 Kbps service, but few now offer 128 Kpbs.

Trying elements
The biggest challenge wireless ISPs said they faced was designing and implementing broadband fixed wireless networks that worked. No big surprise there either.

"Just understanding radios and wireless—it's a whole new game for them," he says. "It goes well beyond TCP and routing about which everyone thinks they're expert. It's a whole new piece of technology for them to learn."

McCafferty is coy about revealing the other top five challenges. But getting vendor support—mentioned by only 12 percent—was not a major factor, he says, implying that vendors are providing fairly decent service.

That may come as a surprise to some wireless ISPs operators.

—End

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