Fixed Wireless News Briefs

• Wireless broadband set to soar
• Early unlicensed lead ... But troubles ahead?
• Line of Sight—who needs it?

by Gerry Blackwell [April 10, 2001]

Wireless broadband set to soar

Big news from Frost & Sullivan, the San Jose CA-based market research firm. In a new report, North American Broadband Wireless Access Services Market, the firm says wireless has matured to a point where commercial deployment is a reality.

ISPs that have been in the field with commercial broadband services using wireless for a couple of years now may wonder what they've been doing all this time. But it's always nice to know that whatever it is—it's now real.

The Frost & Sullivan report projects the industry will surpass $28.5 billion in revenues by 2007, climbing from $842.3 million in 2000. This is from services using both licensed and unlicensed spectrum.

"Fixed wireless technology is one of the few technologies that can go from an Internet service provider's fiber, all the way to the door, and is seamless across the entire metropolitan area," says Frost & Sullivan industry analyst Michelle Gao. "It's an ideal technology to bridge the gap between the fiber backbone and end users."

That's assuming the wireless signal can get to the end user. There are a limited number of buildings that can be used as wireless access points, putting roof space at a premium, the report notes. Successful service providers are those that can quickly identify their customers and supply service through quality transmission channels.

"Obtaining access to strategic rooftop locations is very critical to broadband fixed wireless operators," says Gao. "There is only a certain amount of equipment wireless operators can put on the top of each building without interfering in their transmissions."

Line of sight issues can also limit the size of the addressable market, especially residential, and small and medium-size businesses, whose physical locations are usually surrounded by trees and other objects.

"Recent technological developments claim to be able to capture signals as they bounce off buildings and other objects, and redirects them to transceivers, but these technologies are still in the field-trial stage," says Gao.

Addressing the business market is the immediate goal for broadband fixed wireless service providers. In 2000, more than 99 percent of broadband fixed wireless service revenues are generated from business end users.

However, there will be more services offered to the residential market by service providers in the next few years, the report says, and residential users will go up the demand curve after broadband wireless technology matures and economies of scale can be realized.

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Early unlicensed lead ... But troubles ahead?

Despite billions of dollars poured into U.S. broadband wireless licenses, unlicensed wireless technologies maintain a clear lead in terms of deployment to date.

This is according to findings from a new report by The Strategis Group, a Washington DC market research and consulting firm.

But unlicensed operators could face difficulties with over-saturation and resulting interference issues in future, Strategis warns.

The report, U.S. Fixed Wireless: Unlicensed Spectrum, says that while LMDS and MMDS growth will outpace unlicensed in the long-run, unlicensed operators will see service revenues soar over the next five years at an annual growth rate of more than 75 per cent.

Strategis is forecasting 2005 service revenues topping $730 million.

"For many people, U.S. fixed wireless activity is really limited to Teligent and Winstar," notes Peter Jarich, Strategis director of North American broadband research.

"In reality, however, service providers operating over the unlicensed ISM and U-NII bands are very common and have launched many more markets than all of the LMDS operators combined."

Strategis identified an estimated 250 active unlicensed wireless operators, with about 500 to 1,000 more providing services on a one-off or trial basis.

"Many of these guys are small," Jarich says. "They are nowhere near household names. That said, we're seeing strong month-over-month growth and the emergence of a new set of unlicensed ISPs who all have aggressive national deployment plans for the next 18 months."

But while the benefits of unlicensed wireless are clear—no licensing costs, quick deployment, available equipment—no technology is perfect. Signal interference and a lack of coordination to prevent markets from becoming quickly over-saturated are two key problems in the space.

"As more and more of these operators go forward with ambitious market launches, operators will inevitably end up butting heads and interference will follow," says Strategis director of international broadband research Jamie Mendelson.

"Service will suffer and operators will go out of business. LMDS and MMDS, as licensed spectrum, will have their own issues, but will not face the same technical difficulties."

Regardless of technical difficulties, strong business plans backed by capital and technical know-how should manage to survive, and opportunities for unlicensed will continue to be strong in suburban and rural areas where interference is less of an issue.

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Line of sight—who needs it?

Two equipment vendors recently announced new unlicensed fixed wireless network equipment that does not require line of sight.

WaveRider Communications Inc. of Toronto announced its LMS3000 non-line-of-sight (NLOS) wireless system at the International Wireless Communications Expo in Las Vegas last month.

And SPEEDCOM Wireless Corp. announced recently it would "debut" its new SPEEDLAN PH9000 point-to-multipoint wireless product line during the Networld+Interop trade show in Las Vegas, May 8 to 10.

The SPEEDLAN products use SPEEDCOM's proprietary PacketHop non-line-of-sight technology.

"Line-of-sight is the single obstacle preventing wireless from becoming the preferred last-mile solution throughout the world," said SPEEDCOM president Bruce Sanguinetti.

"We're proud to announce that our new product line overcomes that obstacle."

Both products are designed for ISPs and carriers. The LMS3000 operates in the license-exempt 900 MHz spectrum, the SPEEDLAN PH9000 in the 2.4GHz ISM band.

WaveRider says the LMS3000 will be a cost-effective solution for wireless ISPs serving markets with low to medium population densities.

The system delivers Internet access at speeds up to one Megabit per second, and includes a small end-user modem and indoor antenna that can be easily installed by subscribers.

The user-installed modem, which has been granted approval by the FCC, eliminates the cost for professional installations required for the rollout of existing competing technologies, WaveRider says.

The LMS3000 can support over 10,000 subscribers per system, and includes the company's proprietary Network Management System (NMS) software.

The system has been successfully deployed in Southern Alberta by Platinum Communications Corporation, which is currently delivering high-speed wireless Internet access to two communities.

"The feedback we have received from our LMS3000 customers has been extremely positive," said Platinum COO Allen Stretton. "We have already recognized revenues with our initial customer base and the demand for our wireless Internet service is growing at a tremendous pace.

The SPEEDLAN PH9000 series products are designed to reach more than 90 per cent of a sector's population by overcoming the need for clear line-of-sight between base or repeating station and a subscriber's premise transceiver.

The first products released will work as either a non-line-of-sight extension to an existing SPEEDLAN 8000 deployment, or as the heart of a new multi-sector deployment where NLOS functionality is required.

SPEEDCOM says the PH9000 products will be extremely simple to install and will provide the unique ability to "self-heal the network" as a sector's topography or geography changes over time.

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