DSL Prime: Statistics and Lies

The numbers show that ILECs in North America are falling behind those in Europe and Asia, and they can also tell you some things you did not know already.

by Dave Burstein of DSL Prime and Future of TV [July 2, 2008]

You CANNOT make friends with the rock stars. That's what's important.
—Les Bangs. It's harder to be truthful about your friends.

Canada's Konrad W. von Finckenstein required Bell Canada to release the data on their network, and the results are remarkable. Bell is shaping traffic and people in Ottawa have been saying that's inevitable. Not even close. The great news is that Bell has no significant problem. Bell's filing identified only one area where they had more than a nominal problem. The connections behind their DSLAMs are too slow, apparently a fraction of the speed others have been deploying since 2002. The problem can be solved for between $2 and $20 per customer probably less than their lobbying and lawyer's budget on the issue. Bell's data are very clear, and provide insight into traffic on a large network (Below)

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Time Warner Cable is not offering to sell Time Warner New York, I hear from the CEO, Glenn Britt. I believe him, meaning my short item on the subject last issue was apparently incorrect. I'm glad I also said I didn't think the deal would go down, but that's no excuse for a mistaken report. Only doctors are allowed to bury their mistakes, which is why this item is at the top. I also sent out notes to every reporter I recognize on the DSL Prime mailing list. I don't think the two sources I relied on meant to mislead me, but if something is going on the leadership of TWC presumably isn't involved. Ouch.

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Larry Irving, one of the smartest and most liked people in D.C., is very angry I wrote "Larry Irving is proving to be the most effective lobbyist in D.C." He tells me that he never calls on anyone in Congress to urge them what to do about legislation and is definitely not a "lobbyist." I've spent almost a decade watching some of the best lobbyists in the world and seeing how crucial "indirect lobbyists" are to their success.

Offer a suitcase with a million dollars to Mike Powell or Kevin Martin and I'm convinced they would throw you out of the office and possibly have you arrested. So why have the results been a disaster? (politics, at end)

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The new FCC numbers suggest AT&T and Verizon essentially stopped deploying broadband to new areas, but I need to analyze the data factcheck before I say anything firmly. What is clear is that Verizon and AT&T have more unserved customers than any other major telcos in the world, 2 to ten times more than DT, FT, BT, and the like.

The underserved DSL territories are very vulnerable to cable DOCSIS 3.0, Denny Strigl of Verizon observes. For speeds of 50/25 and maybe 100/50, the incremental cost for the cable operator is $180 and down, estimates one of the best analysts. Within two years, it should be comfortably under $100.

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The best way to congratulate the irrepressible Jennie Bourne on finishing Web Video: Making It Great, Getting It Noticed is to order a copy. She did a great job.

VDSL Moving Forward
1 million per quarter at Conexant, Adtran win for Infineon
Cyrus Namazi at Conexant tells me VDSL2 bonded modems are ready to ready to ship from some of their customers. No one will be happier than the folks at AT&T, who are turning down hundreds of thousands of customers they will be able to serve by bonding two lines. Bill Smith, now running the AT&T network, was a strong supporter of bonding when he was a BellSouth. I called bonding the "57 percent solution" because BellSouth had 57 percent percent spare copper, plenty to give each broadband customer two lines. VDSL is doing well at Conexant, with 1M lines shipping every quarter.

Andrew Schmitt at Nyquist Capital writes the new Adtran 1100 remote DSLAM features Infineon chips. AT&T buys Adtran DSLAMs, and the new Adtran matches the last descriptions of a unit they want to buy and install in huge quantities. Adtran technology was used for the VDSL2 bonding standard, so they presumably will be among the first to deploy bonded VDSL2. AT&T hasn't gotten back to me about whether they will in fact go for the Adtran remotes.

Copyright 2008 Dave Burstein.
The DSL Prime Newsletter is reprinted with permission.

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