DSL Prime: AT&T Willing to Risk BellSouth Deal

While the Alcatel-Lucent deal is done, waiting only on rapprochement between two sets of spooks, the BellSouth deal might be over.

by Dave Burstein of DSL Prime and Future of TV [November 28, 2006]

"We have suffered a lot. We have helped to develop the Microsoft Internet-TV platform."
—Ueli Dietiker, CEO Swisscom (informitv)

Ed Whitacre is willing to let the BellSouth deal die, a sensible move given the price has gone up $17 billion since March when the deal was announced and $29 billion since January. Losing the war in Iraq cost the Republicans the election, and could (but probably won't) kill the merger. The best informed D.C. folks believe the fix is in, and McDowell will suddenly discover that his conflict of interest has suddenly disappeared so he can pass the deal. Ethics be dashed. Meanwhile, a university study that sees no benefits from the merger is making waves at the FCC. (continued in policy, at end)

[Ed. note: someone at ISPCON also told us that McDowell might decide he could vote on the merger.]

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Stephen Harper promises to dramatically reduce cancer deaths in Canada, and if he succeeds I hope Canada re-elects him Prime Minister by a wide margin. Getting results on what's really important earns more respect from me than ideology. Broadband for all isn't as important as curing cancer, but getting a 10 Mbps up, 50 Mbps down connection to nearly everyone is a reasonable goal that Germany, Japan, Paris, and Verizon's quarter of the U.S. can achieve. Regulators in every developed country should do as well. (Ubiquitous affordable wireless might be even more important, but is not DSL Prime's story.)

Bringing those speeds to Britain requires a fire lit under Gordon Brown, incoming British Prime Minister, and Ed Richards, Tony Blair's OFCOM CEO. Paul Reynolds at BT, after much internal debate, has decided to only offer 1 Mbps up, 10 Mbps to 25 Mbps down ADSL, leaving the UK behind for the next decade. Reynolds concludes, "It is not immediately apparent where the incremental revenue would come from [FTTH] investment." (Ken Wieland) To Brown and Richards, it should be "immediately apparent" that country deserves more. It's hard but not impossible to find policy that delivers advanced, affordable, and near-universal service, and Brown should step in before BT's plans leave the UK behind. In BT's case, setting the line charge 12 pounds for a high-speed line with new investment but 8 pounds for a slower line would be about right to change Reynold's decision. Better ideas from readers (and BT) requested.

Paris. Le Web 3 on 11 and 12 December is attracting the very best of the European Internet. Say hello to the round fellow with a beard and stop by Cameragirl Jennie Bourne's birthday party.

Lightspeed Explodes in Houston
5,000 DSLAMs will soon be turned on
Deutsche Telecom has reported heat problems at remotes, BellSouth has held off deploying VDSL there, and now an actual explosion at AT&T. The Sony lithium batteries in laptops could be a harbinger, although it is not yet determined a lithium battery was the cause of the Houston explosion.

It could be a freak accident, but the pictures of charred equipment, damaged siding, and a fence knocked down in this Light Reading article are worth a look.

Phil Harvey and Andrea Quezada hear from homeowner James Harrison that "his wife, Mabel, who was home when the DSLAM cabinet was destroyed, said the blast was significant and debris went in at least two different directions. 'It went about 50 feet to the other side of the yard and some pieces of the box went down the street,' he says. 'It shook the house pretty good.' Wes Warnock of Fleischman-Hilliard, AT&T's PR firm, adds "We're looking into all the possibilities for this fire, including a gas leak, electrical issue, or an act of vandalism."

There are hundreds of similar units deployed that are scheduled to be turned on in the next six weeks, with tens of thousands more due in 24 months. Jim Carlini, a former Bell labs engineer, is scathing "the scene has been compromised by AT&T taking away all the pieces to look at them 'back at the lab'. If it was considered a crime scene, it should have been left untouched and proper authorities should have been brought in to investigate."

"No job is so important
No service is so urgent
That we cannot take the time
To perform our work safely"
—Bell System plaque, from Carlini

Wes Warnock comments: "AT&T puts the safety of its customers and employees first—and our track record reflects that. We're doing everything we can to get to the bottom of this, including utilizing a forensic investigation team comprised of AT&T and non-AT&T professionals. Our investigation is ongoing. To suggest this is a technology issue is presumptuous and inappropriate. … As for our testing, we continuously test all the pieces of our network in AT&T Labs, which is known around the world for its exhaustive research and stringent criteria. We are conducting a thorough investigation of this incident. Until our investigation is complete—and we can review the facts instead of mere speculation—I won't have any other details to share with you."

Copyright 2006 Dave Burstein.
The DSL Prime Newsletter is reprinted with permission.

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