DSL Prime: Improbable Claims Department

DSL Prime promises to change the tone of its coverage of New Visual when that company releases test results. Meanwhile, DSL Prime is skeptical of the company's claims about its technology, even as researchers at other companies do good (but not publicized) work.

by Dave Burstein of DSL Prime and Future of TV [September 7, 2006]

Improbable Claims Department
Has New Visual/Rim Semi found a way around Shannon's Law?
New Visual, now renamed Rim Semiconductor, issued a press release claiming "100 percent faster than traditional VDSL2 technology" and refers to "higher bit rates on short loops and long loops from 40 percent to more than 100 percent." This is almost certainly untrue in most appropriate comparisons, because 40 percent to 100 percent more performance than VDSL2 would break Shannon's Law. It's far more likely that the results of their testing at Telcordia refer only to limited cases, but I can't confirm that if Rim won't release the report to me. I've been reporting unlikely performance claims from this company for several years, as well as highly questionable business practices in the past. I would totally ignore them except that their press release has already been picked up by at least five media outfits. Ironically, there may be some technology here that would be interesting if less hyped.

Brad Ketch, CEO, writes "Thanks for your interest in the Telcordia report. We have a high degree of confidence in their abilities. We are hard at work implementing the design and are showing it to our target customers as we move along. We'll keep the readers of DSL Prime informed as we hit our various milestones." If RIM demonstrates positive results, I'd be delighted to change the tone of my reporting.

The company refused my requests to let me look at the original Telcordia report to determine whether the quotes are misleading. It appears that conclusions attributed to the researcher in the RIM press release were taken out of context, often overstated, and spun. A good engineer can easily double VDSL results by changing conditions of power, spectral distribution, interference or other parameters for results in the lab that would not apply in the majority of real applications. Alternatively, Rim may have a technology that does significantly improve performance in certain conditions, but not in the majority of cases. Their "on-the-fly adaptive equalization," for example, might be helpful in the presence of widely varying impulse noise and other non-standard conditions.

Yahoo Finance reports a market cap of $51.35 million for RSMI.OB. That is a very high value for a company with virtually no sales and losses in the millions, unless they have a breakthrough technology. I also note their 11-Jul-2006 SEC filing, "Non-Reliance on Previous Financials, Audits or Interim Review, Regulation FD." For the record, I have no financial interest in the company, and have had only polite conversations with the people in current management.

The one technology in sight that promises major performance improvements is dynamic spectrum management. Key to DSM is reducing effective noise by controlling what happens in the binder group. The Shannon limit is determined in relation to noise, so throughput can increase with a change in the noise level. Other than that, the best engineers I know expect only marginal improvements in ADSL or performance on long loops.

VDSL2 chips currently shipping are early generation and at least some need improvement to reach the expected performance level in the field. Engineers at seven companies are working hard on those problems.

BT: DSL's Not "Free" If You Can't Get It
A point worth repeating
The Carphone Warehouse and BSkyB offers are highly attractive, although they are tied to TV and mobile plans that aren't cheap. But fewer than half of Britain can sign on in 2006, and no company except BT has promised to serve more than 70 percent of the country. BT's ads are on target: "Some broadband providers don't think it's worthwhile offering their best prices to over a third of Scotland... At BT we believe that your address shouldn't determine the price of your broadband."

The Scotsman quotes Jon Hurry, BT Retail's general manager of internet services, saying the company's best broadband services are available to 99 per cent of Scotland. "There are no unexpected charges for living outside the major conurbations and, unlike some providers, we already reach major cities like Perth and Inverness … Sky only offers its best deals to around 9 per cent [of Scotland]. Carphone Warehouse charges more than half the country £10 extra."

BT deserves credit for possibly the most comprehensive buildout in the world. They've not only installed DSLAMs for 99.8 percent of the country, they've done leading edge research to develop long reach DSL for the customers far away from the exchange. I've previously assumed distance would only allow service to about 95 percent of Britons, but Joe Kelly of BT tells me they can offer DSL (at some speed) to 99 percent.

AT&T Building Again
DSL now so cheap it can go almost anywhere
After stopping the DSL buildout in 2002-2003, AT&T is now filling in many of the gaps. In Indiana, George Fleetwood says they are raising availability from 72 percent at the beginning of 2006 to 80 percent yearend and 85 percent by the end of 2007 (MD Times). AT&T's last announced national availability was 76 percent. George Bush is committed to "affordable broadband for all Americans in 2007." Kevin—how will we get there?

Copyright 2006 Dave Burstein.
The DSL Prime Newsletter is reprinted with permission.

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