DSL Prime: Subscriber Numbers

DSL Prime presents its most complete collection of data ever. The numbers don't lie: Europe and China—and the rural U.S.—are the high growth areas for DSL.

by Dave Burstein of DSL Prime and Future of TV [June 29, 2005]

Q1 2005
Europe is the growth leader
"Take off is here," I wrote last year in mistake, thinking some impressive results in China and France would jumpstart even faster growth. China is doing well but not accelerating; while the China-U.S. DSL gap is growing, the U.S. maintains a strong lead in cable modems, and the total broadband growth is similar. Q1 wasn't bad, showing a small seasonal drop from Q4 2005. Japan has reached 2.4 million fiber homes, slowing DSL growth.

 

Total DSL Subscribers
Rank	Nation	Number
1	China	19,497,000
2	USA	15,106,294
3	Japan	13,887,000
4	Germany	7,450,000
5	France	7,184,000
6	South Korea	6,729,406
7	UK	4,987,450
8	Italy	4,935,000
9	Taiwan	3,200,000
10	Spain	2,884,807
11	Canada	2,807,911
12	Brazil	2,092,500
13	Netherlands	2,032,500
14	Australia	1,351,000
15	Belgium	1,112,350

The perspective is totally different when you adjust for the size of the country. Korea now no longer stands alone, with Taiwan, Israel, and half a dozen Europeans not that far behind. Belgium and Norway are the only countries with a high take rate despite high prices. Germany has become a notable laggard, 30 percent behind France despite being far ahead in 2002.

 

DSL Subscrbers Per 100 Phone Lines
Rank	Nation	Number
1	South Korea	28.9
2	Taiwan	24.4
3	Israel	22.9
4	Finland	22.2
5	Belgium	21.7
6	France	21.1
7	Hong Kong	21.1
8	Netherlands	20.3
9	Norway	19.6
10	Japan	19.5
11	Denmark	18.3
12	Italy	18.0
13	Switzerland	16.5
14	Singapore	15.5
15	Spain	15.4
16	Sweden	14.3
17	UK	14.2
18	Canada	14.1
19	Germany	13.9
20	Austria	13.0

Haroon Butt, Tim Johnson, and the Point-Topic team in India, working with the DSL Forum, do an extraordinary job compiling these figures. I've spent hours with their full reports—a pay service—gleaning information.

U.S. Q1
The SBC-Verizon gap continues, and even including Fios customers will be significant into 2007. Cable growth is slower because of DSL price cuts. Thank you, Merrill Lynch, for these figures.

 

RBOCs
Company	Total (thousands)	Growth (%)
Bellsouth	2,349	10.4
Qwest	1,122	7.3
SBC	5,608	10.8
Verizon	3,944	7.6
Total	13,023	9.0

 

RLECs
Company	Total (thousands)	Growth (%)
Alaska	27	9.4
ALLTEL	283	9.5
CenturyTel	174	7.6
Cincinnati Bell	141	15.1
Citizens	243	10.6
Commonwealth	21	6.4
FairPoint	37	15.4
Iowa Telecom	20	7.9
Madison River	42	23.3
Sprint	551	7.2
TDS	49	7.6
Valor	31	5.8
Total RLEC	1,618	10.5

Note: The actual Q1 U.S. broadband total is higher, 36.5 million according to Point-Topic. Merrill didn't include Brighthouse Cable (750,000), a private company and some others. There are also some companies, generally quite small, under everyone's radar, like UrbanDSL FTTP in the Bronx and the vast majority of ISP-Planet readers.

Q1 regional top ten broadband carriers
courtesy Teresa Mastrangelo, broadbandtrends.com

 

Asia
Company	Total (thousands)
China Telecom	15,719
China Netcom	9,267
NTT	6,871
KT	6,133
Yahoo BB	4,776
Chunghwa	3,200
Hanaro	2,690
eAccess	1,850
KDDI	1,585
Thrunet (Korea)	1,281

 

Europe
Company	Total (thousands)
Deutsche Telekom	6,400
France Telecom	5,160
British Telecom	4,932
Telecom Italia	4,435
Telefonica	2,773
KPN	1,500
NTL	1,443
Belgacom	1,010
Swisscom	878
Telekom Polska	793

(UPC cable, if treated as a group, would be on this list. db)

 

Latin America
Company	Total (thousands)
Telesp (Brazil)	880
TelMex	665
Brasil Telecom	625
Telemar (Brazil)	554
Telefonica—Peru	235
CTC Chile	222
NetServicos (Brazil)	214
Telefonica Argentina	209
VTR—Chile	191
CANTV (Venezuela)	186

Q1 Canada
(from company reports and Cable Digital News)

 

Company	Total (thousands)
Bell Canada	1,936
Shaw	1,101
Rogers	988
Telus	711
Videotron	530
Cogeco	276
Manitoba Tel	110
Other Canadian cable	175

Copyright 2005 Dave Burstein.
The DSL Prime Newsletter is reprinted with permission.

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