DSL Prime Mega Issue

We combine two issues of DSL Prime into one massive collection of data that shows that broadband can be deployed everywhere, and deployed faster. Also, a farewell to FCC internet guru Robert Pepper.

by Dave Burstein of DSL Prime and Future of TV [June 29, 2005]

"Providing broadband connectivity to all, at the most reasonable prices shall be my top most priority."
—Indian Minister Dayanidhi Maran

"When you give a banquet, invite the poor, the crippled, the lame, the blind, and you will be blessed."
—Luke 14:13. Our Internet banquet must be "affordable."

They laughed at the prediction Anton Wahlman and Long Jiang made four years ago of 150 million DSL subscribers in 2005 , but with 10 million new subscribers every quarter, it's coming close. There are 107 million as of March 31, and the yearend total should be 135 to 140 million, meaning Anton and Long were off by only a few months. Their 30 million in China projection, far above any other I recall, will be right on target. Europe is currently leading growth, while Brazil, Turkey and the Philippines have done surprisingly well. India is just starting to grow and more than half of Internet users are still on dialup. 300 million at DSL Prime's tenth anniversary in 2009, perhaps?

Earthlink's interest is bringing closer New York's goal of speed, ubiquity, and affordability, and I hope some of my suggestions below are helpful in your home town as well. The U.S. is now less than 15 percent of the DSL market that began here, and probably less than 15 percent of the innovation. The answers for New York come often from abroad—Germany's inspiring mesh wireless experiments, a Dutch analysis of the economics of municipal fiber, Andhra Pradesh's wiring of every village. I do my best to report internationally, but always welcome reader help finding original stories I might have missed.

Don't underestimate the importance of Bluephone, the wireless phone BT connects via 802.11 and Bluetooth at home. It took 2 to 4 years of chip improvements to get the cost and power down, but by 2009 that's the phone everyone will want—with TV, of course. It's not a triple or quad play coming, but a fiveway with mobile video.

If you can sell, there are several positions worldwide in IPTV for mPhase. Keep the ads coming—amid the good news lately are plenty of disappointments that put good people on the street. To view job ads, visit the DSL Prime website.

Cheap equipment brings down service prices; low prices drive volume, reducing all costs. The virtuous cycle continues. Both France and Germany now have 15 euro prices, sans modem.

Masayoshi Son changed the world by charging $20 for 7 Mbps service. Two billion dollars later, Son turns EBIDTA positive as he approaches 5 million DSL customers, of whom 4.5 million take VoIP as well. If he were to sell now, he would have doubled his investment in three years. Xavier Neil brought that model to France, adding video, and the European giants are quaking.

Here in New York, where 3 Mbps service goes for $32 and higher, CITI Columbia is hosting a seminar on alternatives Thursday, with Lawson Hunter, Mark Cooper, Jessica Zufolo, and the best of the usual suspects. Dewayne Hendricks, the most inspiring guy in wireless, is coming, as well as Dave Baker, whose EarthLink is talking a $75 million investment to unwire New York. Say hello to the round fellow with a beard and the extraordinary Jennie Bourne.

Pepper leaving FCC
Taught FCC telecom, taught telecom folk policy
Robert Pepper is leaving the FCC, creating an enormous hole in U.S. policy. Pepper insists "I never made any final decisions ….that was (and is) always the call of the Chairman and/or Commission," but for more than a decade only the most political decisions did not bear his stamp. He's young enough to again accomplish something extraordinary and I expect he will.

Pepper insisted "Hands off the Internet" to every official with yet one more hare-brained scheme, and played a remarkable role in its U.S. growth to date. Commissioners came and went, while Pepper was the link between policy and the technology community, bypassing the D.C. fog to discover reality. The best on Wall Street connected through Pepper, and they in turn brought to D.C. perspective from outside the beltway. The most respected person at the FCC cannot be replaced.

Stories to come, if I ever get caught up:

• GPON chips
• ST, ADI, and Metalink chip update
• Microsoft VC-1 trying to catch up
• Neither monopoly nor perfect competition: The Ray Gifford slide
• P2P 46 percent of traffic, Web surfing 40 percent

Copyright 2005 Dave Burstein.
The DSL Prime Newsletter is reprinted with permission.

"The power of the printing press belongs solely to those who own the presses"
—A.J. Leibling

The Internet is the cheapest printing press ever invented.