DSL Prime: One Added Every Second

DSL's global subscribership passes 100 million, and one more DSL subscriber is being added every second.

by Dave Burstein of DSL Prime and Future of TV [April 1, 2005]

"88.7 percent of the 16,000+ people who voted chose the line speed, with no limits option as their preferred billing method."
—ADSL Guide, UK. Consumers hate caps.

A new subscriber is signing on every second, as DSL passes 100 million. In China, fiber to the building is over 6 million, and Indian broadband is ready to take off.

That great news is tempered by a coming storm of cable competition. Cable will move to 50 and 200 Mbps while some telcos continue debating whether 3 Mbps is enough to please customers. While it won't happen everywhere, the technology (Cisco wideband bonding) works, cost is moderate, and deployments in some regions imminent. Japan and Korea are set first. Verizon is putting fiber in the ground at a furious rate, and suddenly the cable guys are scared. Brian Roberts over six months has gone from certainty Verizon wouldn't follow through to an anxious push to CableLabs to get NGNA working yesterday. Cisco and Arris are ready to oblige, and the announcements will come heavily before the NCTA show in SF April 3 to 5.

To understand how easily cable speeds can get to a gig or more (shared, but still darn fast), do the arithmetic. Today's standard cable system carries 4 to 6 gigabits when converted to digital. Current generation systems have 131 six MHz channels, each of which will carry 30 to 40 megabits when converted to digital. Move five low audience analog channels to digital, and you gain 105 Meg for data; move all 80 to digital, and two or three gig become available. Time Warner, seeing Verizon coming in New York, invested last fall in key chipmaker Broadlogic, alongside Intel and Cisco.

Jennie and I are editing the Fast Net videos; you missed a great show, including the 100 Meg down, 100 Meg up VDSL systems first unveiled. This week is Dave Isenberg's Freedom 2 Connect in D.C., perhaps the most important event of the year. The smartest, most dedicated folk in the industry are trying to center on the real issues of freedom of speech and content. Don't let the lobbyists drown them out.

Over 100 million
From Tim Johnson of Point-Topic and the DSL Forum come these year end 2004 figures, increasing 3 million per month and passing 100 million in February if not before.

• Asia Pacific 25,308,805 up 5,229,506 on the year or 26 percent Korean growth inevitably slowed, as 3/4 of Korean homes have broadband. Japanese DSL growth dropped in the second half, replaced by millions of lines of fiber.
• South and South East Asia 18,042,500 up 8,802,676 or 95 percent.
• European Union 31,125,564, up 13,721,554, an impressive 78 percent. Extremely rapid growth in France and England led the way.
• Latin America more than doubled, from 1,661,871 to 3,386,307. Brazil is close to 2 million, and Mexico finally moving strongly.
• Middle East and Africa also more than doubled, from 544,337 to 1,207,843. Turkey, Iran, and South Africa all have ambitious plans.
• North America "only" went from 11,569,171 to 16,377,388 up 41 percent

Point-Topic identified 35 million new subscribers, up 57 percent to 96 million at the end of the year.

Copyright 2005 Dave Burstein.
The DSL Prime Newsletter is reprinted with permission.

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