DSL Prime: VDSL 2 or ADSL 3?

As networks around the world investigate new technologies, we can begin to guess who the winners and losers will be, though much remains to be seen.

by Dave Burstein of DSL Prime and Future of TV [December 8, 2004]

"I don't know," CEO Ed Whitacre answered a reporter lately, asked how the clash of cable and telco titans will play out. That's the only honest answer anyone can give to this question for the next two years or so, while Verizon (fiber) and SBC (20 Mbps DSL from the node) deploy their networks in volume and see how customers respond.

My opinion, and the overwhelming consensus on Wall Street, is that SBC is making a mistake.

The near universality of that opinion worries me, however. Brian Roberts at Comcast and other cablers might slow capex, SBC might find a brilliant video strategy (like opening their servers), or something else might prove us wrong. For example, whether the system works efficiently in the customer's home can make an enormous difference. That's one reason I'm really sorry I missed my meeting with Motive's Kenny Van Zant this week; software like Motive's can make a huge difference in the customer experience.

For the nation's economy, Verizon's choice is clearly better. It will be much easier for Verizon to offer more choices of programming, a goal of the FCC and anyone who cares about freedom of speech in the Internet age.

As I write this over the weekend, I'm heading Monday morning to the DSL Forum in Orlando. Airline competition is so fierce, I got a ticket from New York for $140, so I couldn't miss the chance to hear three of the Forum founding team speaking Tuesday morning. I hope to learn a little more of our industry's history. Then back to New York for some Wall Street events. Say hello to the round fellow with a (temporarily) diminished beard.

Wish I could go to an event in Taiwan as well. DSL is a booming international industry, and DSL Prime's worst failing is too much focus on the U.S.

India: Tata VSNL goes cable before DSL
1000 cities in 15 months
Tata has terabits of international bandwidth after buying Tyco's fiber network, as well as a backbone across India. Previously a telco, they were expected to complete the loop with DSL. Reena Verma Bhasin of Merrill reports VSNL has instead decided to get more quickly to market through alliances with local cable operators, sacrificing margin for quick access. Government owned BSNL wants a million DSL subs in the next year, while Reliance is extending their national backbone through DSL TV and an announced deal with Microsoft. The race is on.

Q3 U.S. numbers
Handy list from Leichtman:

 

Internet Provider	Subscribers at End of Q3 2004	Net Adds in Q3 2004
DSL
SBC	4,679,000	402,000
Verizon	3,253,000	309,000
Bell South	1,872,000	134,000
Qwest	956,000	103,000
Covad	524,900	10,555
Sprint	432,000	49,000
ALLTEL	216,885	22,351
Cincinnati Bell	123,000	6,000
CenturyTel	120,869	12,049
Total Top DSL	12,177,654	1,047,955
Cable
Comcast	6,554,000	549,000
Time Warner	3,716,000	168,000
Cox	2,430,555	184,446
Charter	1,819,900	108,500
Adelphia	1,253,407	85,605
Cablevision	1,259,024	79,984
Bright House Networks	700,000	25,000
Mediacom	350,000	23,000
Insight	311,500	37,600
RCN	215,000	5,000
Cable One	165,600	13,300
Total Top Cable	18,774,986	1,279,435
Total Broadband	30,952,640	2,327,390

Copyright 2004 Dave Burstein.
The DSL Prime Newsletter is reprinted with permission.

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