DSL Prime: VDSL2

DSL Prime reports that even though the standard is not final, elements of the technology are showing up in products that are already on the market.

by Dave Burstein DSL Prime [August 20, 2004]

"Bell Labs is like a ghost town. They now have 1,500 people where they once had 8,000, with several hundred more soon to leave." a recent visitor. We can't afford to let the research die.

The automatic rifles are out in force in front of Citicorp with the latest alert here in New York. Inside, they are running the numbers for an LBO of AT&T, wondering how much of the voice business will survive. Will voice calls move to free Skype-like nets, and the corporate equivalents, fast enough to ruin the deal? My best guess is the transition will be slower, but only folks with their head in the sand don't expect serious erosion within the decade and probably sooner. LBO artists should look instead at SBC, ideally while the AT&T wireless merger can still be stopped before they overpay by about $15 billion. SBC's market cap is an amazing $23 billion less than Verizon's, its debt load is much lighter, and the assets are comparable. If I only had 1/10th of 1/10th of 1/10th of 1/10th of that deal, I'd be rich.

Behind the barricades at Citigroup, the lawyers need to reread the prospectus of their Iowa Telecom IPO, a story worthy of a Gretchen Morgenstern article. I started reading the S-1 to understand the results of access fee cuts, and kept going until 4 a.m. in amazement at what I found. Only a fraction of the story is below. The rest requires a very careful fact check to prevent a libel suit.

SBC wants to collect $2 billion per year through a $4.50/month rate hike, proposed along with AT&T and MCI. Verizon and BellSouth refused to sign on, fearing a public backlash. They'd have to explain why they want to tax nearly every American family over $50/year, with no benefits in return. They offer fine words about universal service, ignoring that the increase will force many to give up service. Few in the press have yet reported the contradictions of "raising rates in order to keep them affordable," because the spin is so hard to untangle.

Jennie and I are going to the PFF Aspen Conference, where a high-powered speaker list includes Mike Powell and Larry Babbio, and concludes with Dan Gillmor, who's new book, We the Media, is creating a stir. We'll be staying in the more affordable Snowmass, and should have some time in Denver around Friday the 27th to catch up with Qwest and hope to get together with readers. We'll probably flee the political convention in New York the next week, expecting to find far more truth at the World Science Fiction Convention in Boston. Wish I had the budget to go to ITU Asia in Korea, which should be extraordinary. I also hope to attend the BBWF in Venice end of September, where John Janowick and team have assembled a really strong program. See you there.

Visit the DSL Prime website to see the job ads. Good luck.

Premature "VDSL2" Chips Likely
Non-standard, possibly attractive
Two chip companies are telling customers they will have "VDSL2" chips by the end of 2004, repeating Broadcom's commercial success shipping 802.11 chips far in advance.

Because major issues in the standard are far from agreement in August 2004, it is virtually guaranteed that any 2004 delivered chips will have major discrepancies from the standard and hence from chips shipping in 2005 and 2006.

However, carriers who control their network and are willing to commit to a single vendor for both modem and DSLAM chips might be tempted, just as the Japanese have bought millions of non-standard ADSL2+ like chips over the last year. Jumping in early allowed carriers to offer 15 and 30 meg service a year earlier. However, they have no flexibility going forward to change vendors and can't expect interoperability with the next generation.

The logical chipmakers to jump in early with "VDSL2" include Broadcom, which has the E-14 team working on VDSL for years now but no shipping chips, and TI, who wants to re-enter the market with a super VDSL chip that does everything. Infineon has conceded the QAM side of the market to Metalink, and is rushing to produce a DMT VDSL chip. Globespan and several Asians have teams working, and Aware is offering much of the required design.

Current VDSL chips from Metalink and Ikanos deliver VDSL2 type performance, are shipping by the million, and will be hard to displace with non-standard chips, no matter what they call themselves.

Copyright 2004 Dave Burstein.
The DSL Prime Newsletter is reprinted with permission.

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