DSL Prime: The VDSL War

When both sides of the DSL war refuse to release information to the public, to customers, and to researchers, all that is guaranteed is a war based on market position that will fail to address which standard is better.

by Dave Burstein DSL Prime [June 11, 2003]

Yet another set of VDSL stories (YAVS)
June 18 or not June 18?
Some people hope to hold a vote in Anaheim that will establish DMT as the official and only line code. Others hope the committee will decide the carrier can choose either QAM or DMT. Many expect a delay for at least a month, especially because some of the most important questions of price and performance haven't been answered.

"We will not be finalizing our position until we have had time to review the test results." I hear from a key player, who hasn't had the results long enough to do that. Another, who usually knows just what is going on, says "We have the votes and it will get decided in two weeks." In a third company, the ultimate decisionmaker didn't even know about the issues, much less have the data to decide. So I hope my gathering the information will help. I heard a suggestion I stay by the pool in Anaheim during the meeting to pick up news, but unless the chair tells me otherwise, I don't think a standards meeting wants a reporter standing by.

(Sidenote—I jumped into this story hard when I received improbable claims on the issues, setting off an alarm about a topic I thought had been effectively settled. About 50 hours of research later, I keep finding new aspects, and a wall in front of key answers.)

What don't we know

• Basic performance results, which have been tested at BT and Telcordia in depth. There's no reason to keep them secret from the industry, since all the parties involved are part of the committee and will have the data. Some have agreed to release the non-disclosure, so that, for example, I could discuss it when I meet with technical people at a telco this week. As far as I'm concerned, the only real reason to hold back the results is that they contradict claims the companies have been making.
  
  
• What is the cost, especially the royalty rates? John Egan tells me the QAM requirements can be delivered without any patent claims, but I haven't been able to find out what the royalties will be on DMT. I believe "reasonable and non-discriminatory" would ask 5 to 10 percent of the price of the chip, but the standards body has no clear guideline or enforcement mechanism. Several companies in the DMT group have hinted in the past they want large royalties, and have been involved in suits for hundreds of millions on other products. The companies tell me they will be reasonable, but after telcos have committed to hundreds of millions of dollars of purchases is not the time to find out. If DMT wants to be a standard, they should give that price information out before they ask for a vote. There's no reason not to do what other chip vendors do, quote a price for the actual chips in quantity 10,000. The only shipping DMT chips are from Ikanos, and I hear conflicting things about the price.
  
  
• Whether John Cioffi is right "every QAM VDSL modem deployed reduces the rates of all others to follow. The sooner they stop, the better the future of DSL, technically." That would be a powerful argument that would decide the issue for me if I ran a public network, like a bell, with legacy T-1, SDSL, and other interferers. To this non-engineer, his arguments seem persuasive, but I emphasize I'm not qualified to judge that. QAM has announced a similar effort, but I need to hear from neutral technical people what works. That also doesn't mean that in controlled local deployments, like those Toronto buildings, Bell Canada should not have the choice of QAM, if in fact it's cheaper.

Baby VDSL from Lucent
16 port QAM pizzabox aimed at Asia
Quoc Nguyenngoc didn't flinch when I asked him about VDSL port prices dropping below $100, not giving me a precise price but telling me "Lucent will be very competitive." The current model isn't outdoor hardened, but does include splitters. Backhaul includes GigE, with speeds of up to 70 Mbps downstream and 40 Mbps upstream.

Lucent only offers QAM, although says they can make a DMT board for next year if that's what customers want.

UTStarcom: ready to go both ways
David Howard offers QAM VDSL, but most of his orders remain ADSL, including a "pre-standard" 16 Mbps ADSL2+ unit selling briskly in Japan. "We've got the engineering ready if a customer wants DMT." UTStarcom continues to thrive with Yahoo BB, with whom they won an award at SUPERCOMM for video service. (Yes, it's ready.) Sales are also strong to both China Telecom and China Netcom, emerging in India and Latin America, and ready to surprise in the rest of the world. Two prestigious North American customers have UTStarcom on their shortlist.

Next Level: We could go either way, but QAM is working great now
Huppe of Bell Canada told Vince Vittore they will add 40 more building in Toronto of Next Level gear, Qwest confirmed they are growing the Phoenix launch, and a dozen smaller telcos are in steady production. "If our customers want DMT, we can deliver that as well," they tell me. They've just made a deal with Optical Solutions for fiber, and Motorola has add Quantum Bridge for a complete portfolio (including set tops) ready to bid on the Bell contracts.

Corecess: 2,500,000 lines shipped
Corecess is barely known in the west, but has been a major supplier in Korea and Japan (they got the early Yahoo BB contracts). Steve Klein, once of Next Level, has been presenting them to North American telcos with good effect, and they are on the short list of one of the most important bids open. They've a full video solution based on QAM, but like others are ready if a customer prefers DMT.

Do we need a single line code?
"a single line code has the advantages of ensuring that all VDSL DSLAM providers will have the same basic underlying technology, maximizing our flexibility to select suppliers." says one group. The other says "competition is more likely to bring out the best, and the last two years proved it."

Relevant news
QAM has a fourth vendor, claiming chips close to market if they don't get sidetracked by the standards groups.

Cisco, Lucent, Siemens and Motorola all want a chance for the bell fiber bid, and the bells are committed to having as many vendors as possible to bring down the price. Alcatel supports DMT, but neither they nor anyone else has DMT product shipping in North America. The bells want the bids back fast, and Larry Babbio of Verizon is telling the world he wants production installs very soon. One of the QAM vendors is considering approaching the bells at the highest levels, telling them to insist on allowing QAM as part of the bid if they don't want delay. That's a powerful argument for not eliminating one when circumstances merit.

Editorial: Move quickly...
"Internet time" has passed, but telcos can't afford to wait for ever. They may be making major decisions in the fall, and this decision shouldn't be delayed much longer, if at all.

When you have the facts you need
I've discussed VDSL lately, by phone or e-mail, with literally dozens of involved experts. The key principals involved have been exceedingly generous with time, and their PR people knocked themselves out to work with tight deadlines. Despite that, I still don't know key information: either the price or the performance of each choice. More to the point, the people at several telcos share that ignorance. Their inclination is to look at the data in light of the prices it inspires in the fiber bid, but several vendors are pressing for an earlier vote, and an exclusive franchise.

DSL Prime says to those wanting a vote in June or July, put your chips down not in press releases but in facts. Quote actual prices, royalty rates, realistic delivery time frames. Make a public commitment to full interoperability testing open to all. Release the test results to everyone. You've implicitly promised all of this, to customers, standards bodies, and the press. Deliver all the info, fast, so that fairminded carriers make a decision, fast.

Time to get past vagueness and spin, and work from the facts. You'll get more support in the long run, and have happier customers.

Copyright 2003 Dave Burstein.
The DSL Prime Newsletter is reprinted with permission.

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