As the first wholesale provider to support V.92 modem standards, ISPs nationwide are going to learn whether it's a good idea to be first to market like NaviPath, or wait on the sidelines while additional compatibility tests are done.

by Jim Wagner ISP-Lists Managing Editor [July 4, 2001]

The next time you see a network engineer or tech support specialist from NaviPath, make sure you give them a warm smile and a friendly handshake.

As one of the first major U.S. carriers to support the latest in dialup modem technology, NaviPath essentially volunteered to be your ISPs crash test dummy for V.92 rollouts in the U.S. Whether NaviPath is remembered as a risk-taking crash test dummy or ingenious early adopter reaping first-to-market rewards will be determined in the next few weeks.

A subsidiary of CMGI, NaviPath has 30 ISPs lined up to lever the latest features found in fast-modem firmware. These ISPs, through their respective partnerships with NaviPath, can now support V.92 and v.44 technology months before rivals get started.

Steve Smith, NaviPath director of wholesale access services, said ISPs are going to want to sign up to get a leg up on the competition, which won't be offering the service until later this year.

"It gives our ISP customers the opportunity to quickly offer V.92 services and use it as a competitive advantage to gain subscribers in the market," Smith said. "We believe that as a result of some of our key customers offering V.92, that it will be like a domino effect and you'll see other access providers and other ISPs quickly follow suite."

NetZero and Juno Online are two of the ISPs eager to adopt V.92 and v.44 modem standards. It's surprising that the pair of national players would embrace such a risky business strategy while their merger plans are up for regulatory approval. It's surprising, that is, until you realize both ISPs are essentially CMGI properties. NetZero actually has controlling interest in Juno now, which defaults to CMGI as NetZero's holding company.

The Juno-NetZero combined entity, dubbed United Online or UOL, is itching to lure more new customers its way by providing 56 Kbps modem users a boost. Especially if these new users flock to UOL at the expense of America Online—UOL's primary nemeses, which won't rollout its own V.92 support until at later this year.

"Right now, we're looking at a broadband penetration rate of 30 to 35 percent and that tells me it's not just a fluke, but a trend that will only increase," Yu said. "About how long V.92 is going to extend the shelf-life of dial up is going to depend in large part on how long it takes the broadband operators to make the environment more favorable towards broadband, in terms of availability and cost."

But before you hurt yourself running to the phone to sign a contract with NaviPath and become the first local or regional ISP on your block to support the new modem technology, there's a couple of factors you should take note of before making that first step.

There's a reason why none of the other carriers or ISPs are supporting the V.92 and v.44 standards at this time. Many are waiting until modem makes like Cisco Systems, gives its seal of approval on the fledgling standard.

Chris Parker, manager of development and engineering at wholesale POP provider StarNet, said his company has begun testing Lucent modems using the V.92 and v.44 chipset, but only because the equipment maker has finished its compatibility tests. Cisco hasn't, so his engineers won't begin testing on that line of modem products until the vendor does provide support.

Testing has also recently started with other POP providers, like AT&T Corp. and UUNET. But they too are taking their time and likely waiting until late-Fall, early-Winter 2001 for V.92 delivery.

Parker said that it might be a little early yet to deploy the new standard live just now, with many equipment makers still finishing beta-testing on the standard with its modem product line.

"Most reports that we got from the industry say that the V.92 is still premature and that it doesn't offer significant improvements over the V.90 at this point," Parker said. "We will definitely support the standard once it is supportable and done beta testing from the various vendors."

Gartner's Yu said ISPs are taking a much more careful approach toward the V.92 rollout, recalling the rollout of V.90, where they ran into a lot of compatibility troubles

"Equipment vendors like Nortel Networks, they're taking a much more measured approach," Yu said. "Making sure their code is ready and compatible before rolling out to the ISPs, and the service providers on their end are conducting their own testing before making it available."

NaviPath decided to go live now because it runs Lucent MAX TNT Access Servers across the board. Smith said the company's architecture, built around the products of a single supplier, gave it a head start over other providers that constructed networks with gear from multiple vendors.

NaviPath has positioned its wholesale business to either reap the rewards or take the lumps by advancing it V.92 rollout. Six months from now, when every ISP around the U.S. starts offering the technology to their subscribers, NaviPath will either have an enviable head start or an unenviable head wound.

— End